Media release: $12 billion defence plan won't work without system overhaul, new report warns
Wellington (Thursday, 23 April 2026) - The Government’s 2025 Defence Capability Plan commits $12 billion over four years, including $9 billion of new spending. But without institutional reform, new money risks being absorbed into a system too slow and fragmented to deliver modern capability, a new report from The New Zealand Initiative warns.
In God Defend New Zealand, Major General (Retired) John G Howard, MNZM, a Senior Fellow of The New Zealand Initiative, argues that New Zealand’s defence system is still built for an earlier era. Equipment purchases still move through long approval processes designed for big platforms like ships and aircraft. At the same time, the digital systems, intelligence tools and skilled workforce that now determine whether a military force can operate effectively are treated as secondary.
“New Zealand now has more money on the table for defence. The country should use that moment not only to buy new capability, but to redesign the settings that determine whether capability can be generated, integrated and employed at the speed of relevance,” he says.
The report draws on New Zealand’s experience entering a deteriorating strategic environment in the late 1930s without having adequately modernised. When war arrived, the country had to adapt under pressure at far greater cost. Howard warns that a delay in defence preparation carries real penalties, especially for a small and distant state.
The report argues New Zealand should focus on areas where a smaller country can still make a big difference. Better intelligence, particularly using open-source information and AI tools, would help direct limited resources more accurately. Space-based services and supporting ground infrastructure would strengthen defence and civil resilience. Secure digital architecture would improve how information is shared across government and with partners. Backing local firms that build software, sensors and other technologies with both civilian and military applications would reduce reliance on overseas suppliers and strengthen resilience.
The report recommends six areas of action, including an independent 90-day review of defence policy settings reporting to Cabinet, faster investment in information and intelligence capability, a sovereign space-security pathway defined within 12 months and improved public reporting on defence progress with independent oversight.
“The danger is not simply underinvestment. The danger is late adaptation. A country that recognises the need for change but modernises too slowly still pays the cost of strategic delay,” he says.
The research note "God Defend New Zealand" is attached below.
Major General Howard will also discuss his report with Dr Oliver Hartwich on a webinar on 23 April at 2:00 pm. You can register for that webinar here.
ENDS
Major General (Retired) John G Howard, MNZM, is available for comment. To schedule an interview, please contact:
Jamuel Enriquez, Marketing and Communications Manager
E: jamuel.enriquez@nzinitiative.org.nz
P: 021 022 34451
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About The New Zealand Initiative
The New Zealand Initiative is an evidence-based think tank and research institute contributing to public policy discussion.
Supported by the nation’s leading visionaries, business leaders and political thinkers, we are committed to making New Zealand a better country for all its citizens with a world-class education system, affordable housing, a healthy environment, sound public finances and a stable currency.
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