The Economist, not known for hysteria, has quietly announced that advanced economies are halving their populations every generation. A demographic magic trick. Now you see your grandchildren, now you don’t. 

Naturally, everyone blames “fertility.” As though biology suddenly went on strike sometime around 1992.  

But neither ovaries nor sperm unionised. The culprit is more prosaic—house prices. It turns out the stork demands a 20% deposit. 

Americans, for once, took the lead. A new study confirmed what few were willing to admit. Housing costs explain more than half the baby drought. If housing had been more affordable in recent decades, decline in fertility would have been smaller by 51%. New Zealand's own Treasury-Reserve Bank brain trust signalled this relationship years earlier. Nobody listened. Apparently, it takes Americans to make uncomfortable economic truths undeniable. 

High house prices, it seems, are nature’s most reliable contraceptive. They work particularly well on the young. Show them a Trade Me listing and watch their libido fall by 40%. 

I remember sitting at the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development. A group of young analysts, bright and hopeful, argued for more competitive urban land markets to reduce the artificially inflated land prices propping up our house values. Senior officials, with the serene confidence of people sitting on mature property portfolios, told them to “just go rent; it’s the same as owning anyway.” 

A charming idea. Almost whimsical. Like suggesting money does not matter after you have made yours. 

The same generation that encourages lifelong renting has conveniently forgotten it also expects younger workers to fund their retirement. Preferably, those who are actually having babies. Preferably, ones not living in childhood bedrooms. 

But whenever successive governments try to reform housing, every effort quietly diffuses inside Wellington’s most underrated macroeconomic force: senior ranks of officialdom.  

These are institutions that have mastered the art of polite obstruction to protect incumbent interests. They nod earnestly, commission a discussion paper, schedule another consultation round and ensure competitive urban land markets never actually materialise. 

The irony is perfect. A retirement serenely free of grandchildren, because there will not be many. A masterclass, really, in preserving high house prices while inadvertently losing the species. Oops.