I do not often write columns that I later come to regret. But I wrote one for Newsroom in January 2022 that turned out to be completely wrong. I cautiously predicted that Putin might not need to invade Ukraine, because he had already achieved many of his foreign policy goals simply by building an intimidating force on Ukraine’s border.

My arguments were not completely ludicrous. Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014 had already shut Ukraine out of Nato, because the alliance will not admit a member with a disputed border. Washington was negotiating with Moscow over Europe’s head, which was precisely what Putin wanted.

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