Major General Howard and Dr Oliver Hartwich will discuss the report "Worth Defending" in a webinar at 3:00 pm today. We would be glad to have you join us - register here.

New Zealand's prosperity depends on open sea lanes and a stable Pacific. The country cannot secure either without a defence force able to contribute alongside its partners.

A credible, combat-capable Defence Force is not discretionary spending but the foundation on which the country's security, sovereignty and economic prosperity rest.

Diplomacy, intelligence relationships and trade all depend on military capability, and Howard argues that gaps in it limit New Zealand's influence over regional security as much as its policy choices do.

Defence spending fell from a Cold War high of 2 to 3 percent of GDP to around 1 percent by the mid-1990s as the money went elsewhere. In 2001, the air combat force was disbanded on the basis that the country faced a benign strategic environment. Competition between major powers has since reached the Pacific, after decades of declining New Zealand military capability.

"Successive New Zealand governments have mistaken periods of relative calm for permanent conditions and dismantled capabilities that take a decade or more to rebuild," Howard says.

Denmark shows what that costs. It let its defence force run down after the Cold War, and when the environment changed, rebuilding took a decade and came at far greater relative cost.

The 2025 Defence Capability Plan commits $12 billion over four years, $9 billion of it new, to reversing New Zealand's own decline. Howard supports it, calling it a correction of decades of under-investment rather than discretionary spending. But it runs to 2040, so most of it falls to governments not yet elected.

This report also examines New Zealand's four-million-square-kilometre maritime domain and draws lessons from Singapore, Finland and Israel on how smaller states sustain security with limited resources.

"It is a beginning, not an end point," Howard says of the plan. "Its success will depend on whether successive governments, across political cycles, are willing to sustain the investment and discipline required."