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The Covid-19 crisis can be summed up in one word: uncertainty. Practically everything about this crisis is uncertain: whether there will be a vaccine; whether the virus will mutate and how; the true fatality rate; and the long-term health damage in survivors. Read more
In this week’s New Zealand Initiative podcast, a second lockdown in the country’s largest city continues. The question of what might be happening to businesses as a consequence, however, is hard to answer. Read more
Walking around central Wellington, more shops are boarded up. On Lambton Quay, two bank branches recently disappeared. Read more
In mid-April, German sewerage experts were allowed through New Zealand’s tightly controlled border with the country still locked down at Alert Level 4. At the time, Wellington ratepayers were paying nearly $100,000 a day to ferry wastewater by truck from the city's Moa Point treatment plant to a landfill. Read more
A newspaper recently asked if the average Kiwi can live on a Covid-19 wage subsidy of $585 a week. Unsurprisingly, it found this would be difficult, particularly in Auckland where the average weekly expense for a couple with two children is about $2000. Read more
For those who care about New Zealanders’ wellbeing, the central issue is if the benefits of any given level of lockdown plausibly exceed the costs. About four months ago, I calculated it might be worth sacrificing 6.1% of one year of New Zealand’s GDP if doing so was sure to permanently avoid 33,600 Covid deaths. Read more
While the Government works to plug the gaps to help achieve its elimination strategy, opposition political party National has released its own high-level policy for border protection. It is light on the details so far, but chief economist Eric Crampton says it sets out a workable framework which is worth adding to the pool of ideas for what to do about the border. Read more
With the number of Auckland’s Covid cases increasing exponentially, there is every chance the Government will extend the city’s Alert Level 3 lockdown for several weeks. How we got here and the lessons we can learn are questions for another day. Read more
Presented as an engineering or operations management problem, it would seem almost impossible to solve. Thinking about it as that kind problem is now part of the problem at New Zealand’s border. Read more
Over the past fortnight the border issue troubling politicians and the media has been whether Kiwis returning from overseas should contribute to the costs of their managed isolation. But even with its half-billion-dollar price-tag, the cost of quarantining returning Kiwis is the least of the country's border concerns. Read more