I am always glad that I am not an economic forecaster. Most people’s exposure to economists is radio or newspaper bits from bank economists making their best guesses about economic growth, the unemployment rate, or the track for interest rates. Read more

The pendulum theory of politics suggests that policies often swing from one extreme to another without finding a balanced middle ground. Consider New Zealand’s supermarkets. Read more

Imagine that you had to sell your house in a desperate hurry – Melbourne beckons, and the job there starts soon. Some things that would help the sale go ahead would be well worth doing. Read more

New Zealand’s planning processes have been breaking Wright’s Law for too long. Yesterday’s resource management reform announcement goes some way to fixing things. Read more

If for some ghastly reason you wanted to hit two birds, and you had two stones, trying to hit both birds with each stone would be pretty silly. You can throw both stones, so why not target things a bit more closely? Read more

It isn’t the congestion charging scheme that I would have most-preferred. But the best congestion charging scheme is the one that can get across the line and enjoy durable political support, so long as it can work. Read more

Late last year, online newsmagazine The Spinoff asked the usual suspects for their one-sentence summary of the year ahead. I stole a line from Gramsci, or at least a paraphrased version of it. Read more

New Zealand has one of the world’s most centralised governments. Centralisation has some advantages. Read more

Every student of game theory knows that madness can have its advantages. If your enemy believes you will retaliate, regardless of the cost to yourself, they may think twice before crossing you. Read more

Treasury is consulting on changes to the Natural Hazards Insurance Levy – formerly known as the EQC levy. The Herald’s Jenée Tibshraeny reports that Treasury is considering increasing the Natural Hazards Commission’s cap from $345,000 to $460,000 while increasing the levy by up to $400 per year to make up the difference. Read more

Everybody knows the dice are loaded. At least according to Canadian policy analyst Leonard Cohen. Read more

The government has made increased competition a highlight of its economic growth agenda. So, one might have hoped that a targeted review of the Commerce Act would aim at the big problems blocking open and competitive markets. Read more